As Trade Deadline Looms; Best Deal for Sox Now Mere Fantasy

Buchholz' 2015 Season Pre Injury

At the close of Major League Baseball business on June 2, 2015, Clay Buchholz’ line sat at a very respectable 3.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, to go along with a relatively gaudy 70/18 K/BB  ratio over 68 1/3 innings of work. Yes. He was ostensibly, at long last, evolving into the front-of-the-rotation panacea that would vault the Sox back into relevance in what is an immensely pedestrian 2015 AL East division. This was the dominant stretch of baseball that most, myself included, had expected at some point this year. His 8 shut out innings of sheer dominance against an upstart Minnesota Twins line up that June evening at Fenway the culmination of an immense five start stretch. A five start stretch that saw him pitch to the tune of a 1.95 ERA and 30/8 K/BB ratio over 37 innings. Clay had arrived at age 30. Better late, than never, right? Unless what we were witnessing was Clay’s unorthodox and highly unpredictable rendition of never.

Red Sox Faux Ace Delivers a Pitch at Some point Between Injuries

On June 3, the very next day after he had stymied the Twins line up, I dealt Clay Buchholz from my fantasy team. Why in the world would I do that!? If one were ever going to trade him, what better time to do so?  Allow me to explain.

Buy or Sell; Hold ‘Em or Fold ‘Em

The key to success with regard to player personnel decisions, put into rudimentary terms,  is to know when to hold ‘em, and know when to fold him. Players are akin to stock. The ideal trade candidate’s current value is high. Simple enough. However the challenge is to be perceptive enough to know which players, stocks, will not remain as such.

And to get rid of them ASAP. Do not wait until what is perceived as the inevitable ratchets the market downward.  What must be factored into the decision first is general principles that can be applied to athletic performance. The two largest determinants to the future  level of success of an athlete are, or course, age and attrition (health). Duh. A tertiary factor is personality, or “mental make up”, but this can not be directly quantified.

Thus the first two are often easier to determine. A good general rule of thumb is that athletic performance peaks between the ages of 27-29, at least in baseball, where the physical punishment isn’t quite as extreme as it is in more contact oriented sports. A player will not generally improve 9.9 times out of 10 upon entering his 30s. The skill level of players in their 30’s declines, and they are more prone to injury owed to the aging process.  For the purpose of this piece, we will focus on baseball, and since Clay Buchholz pitches, we shall concentrate on pitchers. Namely starting pitchers. Now that that is all sorted out, what do we know about the aging process relative to starting pitchers?

Peripheral Statistics Welcome You to the 21st Century

Research has revealed that the most fundamental skill that a starting pitcher possesses, velocity, begins to decline after about 25 years of age, and thus the rate of strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) also declines. The rest of a starting pitcher’s peripheral statistics begin to enter into decline, albeit at a more deliberate pace than velocity, at the age of 27, and accelerating during the age 28 season and thereafter. The folks at have displayed this in a graphical presentation, pictured below. 

Graphical Illustration of Why Expecting Improvement at Age 31 is Folly

Pictured above is an illustration of starting pitcher’s peripheral stats throughout the lifespan of his athletic career. The term “peripheral statistics” refers to those statistics that are more esoteric than those commonly employed to measure sheer performance. But the reason why peripheral statistics are of greater value to baseball analytical types is because they are a superior means by which to measure performance because they offer predictive value. For instance, the earned run average (ERA) merely measures the average amount of runs that a pitcher has already surrendered over a 9 inning period. But the reason this stat is futile with regard to projecting into the future is because it does not account for luck. It fails to consider external factors that were out of the pitcher’s control, such as what happens after the ball is batted into play, etc. To account for this utter chaos we have what is called the fielding independent pitcher statistic, or the FIP. Though unpredictable in it’s short term stochastic fluctuations, these by-chance occurrences (luck) will eventually even out via the process of regression, and FIP accounts for this. Thus this is a better predictor of future performance, while ERA simply measures past results. As you can see above, FIP is the stat the ascends most markedly after 27 years of age, and especially after a starting pitcher’s age 28 season. What this tells us is essentially that the average pitcher will give up more runs, more frequently as they approach their 30’s. We can also see that a few other peripheral stats rise, namely BABIP (batting average on balls batted into play), BB/9 (base on balls  or walks per 9 innings) and HR/9. What this does is reaffirm the idea that as the pitcher ages, they will allow more runs because they are losing control and walking more batters, and missing location within the strike zone (meat balls), allowing a larger percentage of balls batted into play (BABIP) to land for hits, which subsequently lends itself to higher batting average on balls batter into play. (think more line drives) More balls are also leaving the parks for home runs due to the percentage of balls being hit harder, meaning more home runs per 9 innings (HR/9).  Not only are pitchers “missing their spots”, and leaving pitches in hittable locations, but hitters are able to get around on more pitchers because of the decrease in velocity referred to earlier.  Obviously, along with the velocity and K/9, the swinging strike rate is the final of the 3 peripheral stats that descends. The other 4 increase. But the point that is being driven home even faster than runs off of an aging starter, is that all 7 of a starting pitcher’s core peripheral statistics worsen from his mid to late 20’s, onward. This is indicative of a deterioration of the skill set, and thus a decrease in performance moving forward, and into his 30’s.  We now know that the average starting pitcher’s skill set begins to erode between his age 25 and 27 seasons. What does this leave us to infer regarding the chances that Clay Buchholz is ready to develop into the long coveted ace that he we had always hoped he would be, just a few weeks shy of his 31st birthday?

Ponder that for a bit while we examine the body of work thus far throughout his major league career.

Buchholz’ Major League Body of Work

Two of the most desirable traits possessed by a bonafide top-of-the-rotation arm in the major leagues are attrition, and consistency. In a nut shell, it can be assumed with a relatively high measure of confidence that the ace of a staff will provide his team with above average aggregate statistics at the end of any given season.  Likewise, the manager can hand the ball over to him in a game of epic proportions, and be entirely comfortable in his assumption that fans all over the region will not be lining up at (insert local bridge) by the fourth inning. But first and foremost, he needs to be able healthy enough to even take the ball.  So in effect, what this entails is that not only do we want the pitcher to allow a relative dearth of runs over many innings, but optimally the runs will be distributed relatively evenly throughout the individual seasons comprising his career. This is because if the pitcher’s career ERA is good, but the variance amongst seasons is high, then is team may be eliminated from contention during his lean years.  However, as previously alluded to, regardless of how well a pitcher can perform, he does the team no good if he is on the disabled list. Lets examine how consistent and healthy Buchholz has been. Or has not.

When viewing Clay Buchholz' stats, keep in mind for the sake of some perspective that the league average ERA is slightly under 4, and generally the goal for durable “work horse” starters is to pitch about 200 innings over 30 starts per season. As you can see in the chart above, Buchholz’ only even comes close to the goal for innings pitched in a season twice, in 2010 and 2012, his age 25 and 27 seasons, respectively. Sound familiar? 

He has only pitched better than the league average ERA in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015. His age 25, 26, 28 and so far in this season, his age 30 season. Prior to his latest injury. Clay has achieved the ERA criteria , while even approaching the games started/innings pitched goal for a high caliber major league arm just once, in lo and behold……drumb roll, please….his age 25 season.

So, lets get this straight, you know….for the record. Buchholz has posted under the league ERA in four seasons, giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will not falter this year…should he ever come back. Is half of a career considered consistent?

He has not once…as in ever, reached the innings/games started goal for a stud ace, but lets pretend that playing a child’s game involves horse shoes and hand grenades for a moment. Clay has come close to those goals twice out of 8 major league seasons. I’m going to go ahead and assume he won’t do it this year given he has just embarked upon his seventh journey to the disabled list over the course of an illustrious, hang nail prone, MASH laden career.

Sue me.

His career ERA?

It sits at just about where we would like it, at a very respectable 3.85. But remember that pesky FIP? It implies that whenever he has been healthy over the course of his 8 year career, he has been the beneficiary of a bit help from the BABBIP gods. When they are done claiming what is rightfully their’s, that ERA should nudge up to about 3.90. 

So what we know about the soon-to-be 31 year old Clay Buchholz is that he is a starting pitcher who has turned in 1 season resembling anything close to that of an ace caliber performance. The very season that he should have according to Fangraphs.com. He had missed 257 games spanning 6 trips to the disabled list, with the 7th in progress as I write. What we also know is that his career is following precisely the same progression as research indicating that he was never consistent enough, nor durable enough to qualify as an ace in his prime, never mind today. Yet the Red Sox have in effect wagered on him taking that next step forward well beyond the point at which father time had began pushing him backwards. Perhaps they were hoping he would remain finally remain healthy. 

Attrition of Aging Players

Below is a graphical illustration of the number of games started per age group from the very informative blog https://workingthecount.wordpress.comIt is crucial that each age group have it’s own discrete calculation so that the fact that there are simply more younger pitchers playing than there are elder pitchers may be accounted for.

How Many Games Pitchers Start Throughout Career

What should stand out on this graph is that much like the efficacy of starting pitchers, the numbers of games started per season also begins it’s descension after the ripe old age of 25, and also begins to decline much more rapidly by about 28 years of age. Buchholz' current position relative to this curve is denoted by the vertical arrow. The horizontal arrow being the trend line thereafter. Pitchers turning 31 years of age, as Buchholz is, have already seen their number of games started per season drop by about 512 games, or 23% from the peak at the age of 25. 

Age Group	# of Players	Player Attrition	Attrition Rate
26-30	5651	-751	-13%
31-35	2253	-512	-23%
36-40	543	-227	-42%

Thus it is safe to assume he will not remain heather as time wears on.

Now that we have acclimated ourselves with the lifespan of a major league starter, we are now better suited to assess what it means for the soon-to-be 31 year old Clay Buchholz, and the prospects of him emerging from this latest DL stint as the power arm that the Sox need to dig themselves out of the AL East cellar.

The Forecast from Punxsutawney Clay

Each and every year, as we begin to enter the home stretch of winter, the days begin to grow longer, and the solar irradiance begins to melt the snow and ice from behind the clouds. Yes, it is every year around that time that the beleaguered, winter weary folks of the north begin to yearn for summer fare, as they turn their lonely eyes to a groundhog by the name of Punxsutawney Phil to see whether or not they are in for 6 more grueling weeks of winter. 

Punxsutawney Clay Sees Six More Weeks of DL. Six more seasons of Mediocrity

If the renowned critter remains unfettered, then they are thereby released from winter’s icy clutches. But should he encounter his shadow and flee into his hole, then they are resigned to 6 more grueling weeks of winter. Well, we here in Boston have our own annual tradition, as the days begin to shorten in length, and the chorus of “back to school” advertisements begin to send children fleeing for one last dip into the pool. 

It is every summer at just about this time that Red Sox fans all over New England sit in wait, to see whether they finally, at long last see all of those episodes of brilliance scattered throughout Clay Buchholz’ career finally coalesce into a stud starting pitcher on the Fenway mound. But in all but one season out of his 8 year major league career, he has seen his shadow, and fled into the whole that folks within the baseball industry refer to as the the disabled list. Unsurprisingly given what we now know, the one season on in which he did not see his shadow was 2010. His age 25 season. A season in which he still fell short of the 200 innings/30 start benchmark some are still holding out hope for as he reaches age 31. Yet here in 2015, a full half of a decade beyond a career pinnacle that still fell shy of those expectations, the Red Sox have decided to forgo the opportunity to acknowledge the fact that his value would never be higher than it was this past June. A month in which he holds a minuscule career ERA of 2.45. Couple this with the fact that 5 of his 7 career DL trips have encompassed parts of the month of July. Buchholz’ career has most definitely featured disturbing trend, yet there was no sense of urgency to move him in an effort to preempt the inevitable. Considering his age, a history riddled with injury and inconsistency, one must wonder why the Red Sox did not jump at the chance to deal him in June, before history repeated. The writing was on the wall. And the fact that July, the month leading up to the trade deadline, is one of his worst career months, featuring an ERA north of 4, should have eradicated any vestige of a doubt regarding what the prudent course of action was.

Clay Buchholz has once again seen his shadow, and the outlook is about 6 more years of mediocrity. Yet again, when the lights got really bright against a crucial tilt against the first place Yankees on July 10th, Clay went down.

Clay Walking Off of Fenway Mound in the 4th inning with Red Sox Trainer on July 10  (photo courtesy of Boston Globe)

Given the preponderance of evidence, it is absolutely perplexing why the Sox, along with some prominent media types, could not see this coming. 

Learn from It

In the days leading up to Buchholz seeing his shadow, I mean, making that inevitable trip to the disabled list, I was forced to endure caller after caller on local sports radio stations display a disturbing contentment with the football being yanked out from underneath them one last time. 

Fear not. This one wasn't deflated. I measured.

Yes. As the biggest fraud ace this side of Jeff Samardzija prepped the first aid kit for an injury that will undoubtedly prompt him to seek “piece of mind” for the next two months plus, caller after caller chimed in that “he is what we are looking for, this is our guy, blah, blah blah”. As nauseatingly out of touch as this was, nothing beats the line of crap that two prominent media personalities spewed forth. Apparently they were absent the past 8 seasons and change.

WEEI.COMs Rob bradford was emphatic. Imploring that we can’t “trade what we are looking for”. He is the ace we need. 

Right. How could we have seen this coming?? Oh, wait. Right. 

The same thing has happened each season, save for one, throughout the duration of his career. 

Add this one to the list. It’s groundhog day.

Mike Reese chimed in with Bradford lamenting that “well, knowing that he got hurt obviously changes things”. The only thing worse then saying something stupid is not admitting that it was stupid. It merely exacerbates the situation.

Own it. Its ok. We’re all human.

Sure, Bradford and Reese, the guy has never pitched well enough, nor remained healthy enough over a long enough period of time to be a bonafide ace, and yet you employ his 7th  trip to the DL (5 of them encompassing at least part of July) as an excuse for having had no clue what this fraud was all about? 

Oh yea. Not to mention this team stinks, any way. Why not salvage the future for the closest thing resembling talent on this island of misfit contracts? Because Bradford and Reese said so.

Oh boy.

Stick to defltegate, Reese.

In an effort to spare my readers any further redundancy in a piece that is already nearing the length of Clay’s DL rap sheet, I will refer you back to the research already referenced. The numbers that any media personality worth a damn, or any team management worth the cheesy bricks that they sold would have already crunched.

What extensive analysis provides us with is a glimpse beyond the vale of statistical chaos that can sometimes cloud our perception of a given player’s performance over a given period of time. And thus what to expect from said player in the future. 
The wise move for the longterm well fare of this franchise was to take the preemptive measure of moving Clay. Acquiring his services would have undoubtedly been perceived by many competitive clubs around the league to have been the move of the 2015 trade dead line. Strike now before the bidding war for higher profile names commences as the deadline looms. And make “the deal that could win them a world series”.
Now that Clay is predictably gone. Again. The ostensible ace of the staff, growing pains not withstanding,  is 22 year old Eduardo Rodriguez.

Red Sox' Young Stud Starter Eduardo Rodriquez in Action

 The interesting thing to note is that the Red Sox acquired the real ace of this staff by dealing a freaking set up man. Last season Andrew Miller netted them what is seemingly a top-of-the-rotation arm from the Baltimore Orioles. Make no mistake about it. What the Sox’ brass, and a few select media types were apparently too incompetent to discern was that Punxsutawney Clay should now be the problem of some poor, hapless team in contention, while the Sox showcase EROD’S new side kick atop the rotation. And/or perhaps a positional player who knows what the count is, and how many outs there are in the inning.  Radical, I know. But this is, after all, a hot commodity in bean own these days.

But now that is all but a mere fantasy.

As the curtain begins to close on yet another fun filled failure on Yawkey Way, take solace in the fact that Punxsutawney Clay should be back in about six more weeks in order to embark upon his remaining 6 years of mediocrity. 

Only this time he will be donning a Bill Murray jersey because the Red Sox have just learned the hard way that it is in fact groundhog day.