A Decade of Reflections on My Recovery from Alcoholism

Overcoming & Accepting Losses to Reframe the Narrative of Your Life

If I am being truthful with myself, which is one of the first things you learn to do in recovery, I am honestly not sure of the exact date that I consumed my last drink. From what I can recall, I made the consious committment with a promise to my ailing father late in the winter of 2014, approximately one week before learning that he would be placed on Hospice care. I approximate this date as February 20th, 2014. However, I  technically relpased in July 2014, just four months following the death of my father on March 5, 2014. While tecnically this validated the presumption of literally everyone around me that the death of my dad would in fact have this impact on me. I can legitimately say that in all honestly it actually had the opposite impact on my life in the most profound manner imaginable.The truth is that I hadn't realized that the jello-shot that I ingested that summer night had alcohol in it. Thus I had remained true to my conviction and acted in accordance with the higher power that my father now representes, which to me is the very essence of my sobriety. As far as I am concerned, today, February 20th, 2024, makes 10 years of sobriety for me. And it is this past decade worth of evolution and metamorphis that has completely reshaped the lens throuugh which I view life. And consequently the narrative with which I identify. But that change did not happen abruptly. It was the most arduous and excruciating of journeys imaginable to arrive at the most wonderful and gratifying destination that is self-actualzation.

My Love of Weather isn't the Only Reason that the Middle Name of all of My Children Represent Seasons. This Hangs in My Office as a Reminder of the Perserverence & Resilinece it Takes to Carry on Afrer Reaching "Rock Bottom"

Rule #1: In order to accept losses one needs to be truthful

Addiction is synonymous with loss. Loss of health. Loss of job. Loss of relationships. Loss of both the trust of others and trust in one self. What all of this culminates in is the loss of integrity, personal conviction and self-esteem. In some cases even the loss of life. It is impossible to value others when you do not value yourself. This descent into moral/spiritual and physical decay is insidious because it entails a decreased level of consciousness, as sort of a protective defense mechanism of the psyche that makes it easier to accept as the personal degradation continues. This is reflected by the ease with which we make decsions that are not in accordance with our conscious, which results in internal conflict and strife that contributes to the obliteration of our sense of self. Thus making it easier to continue making poor decisions. Treating others with respect is virtually impossible when we do not value ourselves and through our actions have forged pathways in the brain that predispose us to making impulsive decisions with a decreased level of consciousness.

In order to put this into proper context, cessation of the substance is the "easy" part; then the real work of dealing with all of this psychological carnage can begin. And given that there is a radius of impact at play, there is also a great amount of damage inflicted to loved ones, as well. This makes earning back the trust of others a long and deliberate process, but not at all impossible in most cases. Once the drinking/drug use stops, a funny thing happens in that you escape that distorted and diseased sense of reality that developed as a protective measure to justify and perpetuate the substance use. It becomes possible to view life obvectively, and while it very well may not be very asthetically pleasing in the immediate aftermath of addicton, you can begin to garner an accurate assessment of what needs to be done and in so doing redevelop trust in yourself. Over time you become accustomed to doing whatever it is that you feel is right again, which is often congruent with treating others in a respectful manner.

Acceptance of reality in early recovery is tremendously difficult because it requires a truthful personal inventory of the state of one's life. This entailed my acceptance of the fact that I was 32 years old, single and still living with my mother, which in and of itself is fine. However, in my case, it also meant that I needed to, for the first time in my life, accept the reality that I had failed to avail myself of a multitude of opporunities and relatively plentiful resources out of fear. Fear of failure and fear or judegement. Fear of my father's mortality. Fear of the day-to-day grind of being a functioning adult. These are all normal empotions that instead of becoming more adept at managing with the passage of time, one develop a proclivity for short term relief via substance use, which begins to breed dependency that infects our bodies, and spreads throughout our sense of self and psycyhe like cancer. And as the disease progresses, not only is our ability to assess life in decline, but so is our ability manage it all while the issues that necessitate management continue to mount. The reality is that you can chose to drive blind folded, but the vehcile of life can not be stopped. In hindsight, the choice of whether to drive with the benefit of sight is your's to make. Ten years ago today, on February 20th 2014, for the first time many years, I chose to remove the blind fold and actually have a fighting chance at navigating life. It was time to face the reality that my father's opportunity to see me make something of myself had come and gone and all I had to show for it was a second OUI conviction. And I only had myself to blame. I have a lifetime to live with that. It was time to face just how far I had fallen behind my peers. It was time to face the fact that my crude attempt at freezing time by blacking-out muiltiple times per week did nothing of the sort, and only left me further behind and less equipped to deal with its passage. 

The cruelest irony of all was that these were all fears that actually fostered my dependency on alcohol, and as insidious and cunning as alcoholism is, it only ensured that they came about rather than me from them.

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Rule #2: Its not what has happened that defines you. Its what is happening and what is going to happen.

My Late Father Actually Typed This Out In A desperate Plea to End My Rumination Over the Past And Allow Me to Focus on My Future. The Rest is History and Ten Years Later It Remains Framed in My Office

Today there is a certain duality to my recovery in that I am able to compartamentalize the past in order remain mindful of it without being consumed by it. This allows me to also be present in the moment in order to focus on the current and future welfare of myself and my family. But this was not always the case. My late father spent the better part of the last year of his life pleading with me and desperately trying to will me out of the spiraling abyss of rumination that had consumed my life. There he lay dying and all he could concern himself with was me and whether or not I would be okay and ever begin laughing again like I used to. There I was so mired in self-aborption and pity that I never did take the time the make that one weekend excursion to Cooperstown to see the MLB Hall of Fame that he always wanted. Sure, I ended up asking while he was bed-ridden in Hospice care even though I knew it was too late. We mutually settled on a postponement until after a recovery that we both knew would never come.

• A) One of the primary reasons I drank was to escape the reality of his mortality.
• B) The reason I was so ill-prepard to face his mortality was that I drank. 
• C) The primary reason that I no longer drink is my ultimate ability to accept his mortality.

 If there were every a crude schematic for "dummies" as to the progression of the recovery from alcoholism, this is it. Trigger-consequence for mal adaptive response-insight and acceptance. 

Following the passing of my father, gradually the preoccupation with missed opportunity, failure to accrue potential perceived wealth and failed relationships began to subside and I was able to realize the opportunity that laid before me. For the first time in my life, I had to incur consequences without having them removed. I had a job I hated, I lost my driver's license for over a year a mere 20 days following the death of my father and yet another relationship was over. But as I finally began to slow the seemingly endless cycle of self-pity and rumination, both the present and future began to come into better focus. I could appreciate the fact that owning my behavior, accepting responsibility and emerging from this turmoil without being propped up by my father posed a unique and novel opportunity for me begin to more independently carve out a life and begin to respect myself again. 

This Momento Hanging in my office is Symbolic of the Mindset that it Takes to End the Cycle of Rumination & Fully Commit to Recovery

The time being single allowed me to focus within as opposed to my previous aversion to doing so. And actually develop a plan for my life that included going back to school to get my MSW and ultimately leaving the job that I hated so much. The key to ending misery is taking action to do something abouty your misery. Go figure-

Taking action early on in recovery represents a crucial vehicle for the shift in perspective from one that laments life to one that sees the potential of life. When I had reached that low point in my existence, I had never felt so different from the father that I respected so much and was convinced that I was that "apple that fell so hopelessly very far from the tree". But over time I began to enjoy life again and it wasn't until many years later, aided by a greatly enhanced breadth of perspective, that I could appreciate just how much like my father I really was.  He had become the man that he was by coming from a family of very limited means and overcoming adversity. And for the first time in my life, I had also perservered in the face of tremendous adversity. It is these qualities that he had so desperately tried to will into me and unseccesfully instill in me, that I was ultimately able to develop through perseverance. What he failed to tech me in life he instilled in death. The reality is that it sometimes takes a hole as gigantic as the one seared by the throes of addiction for the beam of enlightment to shine through. No one has given me my sobriety. I have earned it. Recovery from addiction affords people with a unique opportunity and breadth of perspective that can only be gleaned through enduring that unique hell at rock bottom and having the strength and resiliency to rebuild oneself from the ground up. There is a reason that the most compelling of movie scripts always feature a period of tension and doubt through which the main characters ultimately perservere. Anyone in recovery has the opporunity to write that script as long as they still have a pulse and air in their lungs. Its crucial to always remember that you hold the pen to the script for the narrative of your life and that is a temendous power. But in order to take advantage of that, it is imperative to both let go and accept the past so that all energy can be allocated towards the present and the future. "Accepting and letting go" of the past simply implies that rumination comes to an end and relaity is accepted, however, this does not prohibit the ability to remain mindful of lessons learned and therein lays the duaility of recovery. This is a delicate balance that is always refined over a lifetime and what makes maintaining this even more challening is the changes to the brain that take place during extended periods of addiction.

Rule #3: You don't need to teach an old dog new tricks. But rather news ways of doing the same tricks.

I recently had a psychotherapy client lament to me in session that "you can't teach an old dog new tricks". What he was referring to was a certain rigidity regarding thought patterns and proclivities that have been forged over a lifetime that were causing issues in his life. As a recovering alcoholic, my mind immediately drew a parallel to my own personal journey through recovery and the personality traits and thought patterns that rendered my susecpitble to it. My response to him was "you do not have to teach an old dog new tricks". I then proceeded to reframe his thought pattern using a strength-based perspective that could potentially be advantageious for him, as opposed to self-defeating. This is a perspective that is directly applicable to those recovering from addiction.

There is no cure for addiction; this is why we are always "recovering" and never "recovered". The key is, much like I articulated to my client, to view the trait(s) as a strength and seek outlets to utilize those obsessive tendnecies constructively instead of deconstructively. Accept them as being a part of you because they are. In lieu of drinking, I rellocated that energy towards my passion for sports and became involved in fantasy baseball. I channeled that obsessive proclivity into starting a blog amd earning my LICSW, where I focused on my passion for meteorology much more extensively and utilized my own personal exerience to assit others in empowering themselves. I immersed myself in exercise much more intensely and refined my weight training program. Addiction and the obsessive prolcivities that drive and accompany it can not be cured, but they can be harnassed and rechanneled towards productive outlets to provide the structure necessary to continue on the road to recovery and overall enhanced quality of life. 

Conclusions

There are a few folks in my network who are mindful of my 10 year anniversary and the question of how large of a sobriety chip is awarded for 10 years has been posed. My answer is invariably four pretty damn large ones that epitoize everything that was made possible by my sobriety and the changes that were made along with it:

Its no coincidence that I was never able to remain faithful in any relationship until after I stopped drinking. I didn't respect myself enough to maintain the level consciousness necessary to remain faithful to myself, so there was just no way I could remain faithful to anyone else. But through my sobriety I now have the self-respect to honor myself and my family by treating my wife they way that I would like my own daughter to be treate done day. And four years ago on our first wedding anniversary, my wife suprised me with that elusive trip to Cooperstown that my father never made it to. 

The reality is that while my past no longer detracts from my present and future, it still provides some tearful excursions along the way during personal times of relfection, which keep me grounded. The passage of time and collection of experiences has afforded me a certain serenity through which I no longer torment myself over what has happened and instead celebreate what is happening and what is going to happen. I can accept that I just wasn't meant to figure things out until after my father passed because if I were, I would have. And I am confident that if he knew the impact that his loss would have on me, then he would without hesitation have made the sacrafice of never having met his grandchildren and his beautiful daughter-in-law. Hell, knowing what I know now, he never really met me, or at least this version of me that he would have liked to know. I'm from perfect and am still learning to naviagte the issue of loss. I still struggle with the loss of a dear friend just his past year. However, the difference is that today I have both my sobriety and my family, so I have a fighting chance-

Nine Years of Sobriety

 Nine years ago today, facing the imminent passing of my father (two weeks later) and charges of a second OUI, I walked into my attorney’s office and promptly declared that I had had enough. “I’m done, I uttered…..I’ve had my last drink”. I had decided that This was my rock-bottom. And to add insult to injury, my attorney proceeded to laugh in my face. A second OUI and nine years of sobriety later, that dumb SOB of an attorney is 0-2.

One of the most difficult parts of recovery is learning to accept that which has transpired and perhaps more importantly, accepting that it cannot be changed. It’s done. Its history. What becomes clear throughout this journey is that cessation of the substance(s) of choice is merely the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Then comes the real heavy lifting that includes dealing with the emotional and psychological carnage left in its wake. It took me a little over 12 years to get a hang of the drinking cessation part. And probably about just as long to stop the incessant cycle of rumination that allows one to reallocate energy towards moving the recovery process forward. Slowly but surely, over a decade plus of retraining my mind to focus more on the future than the past, one of the most enlightening and empowering processes that this world will ever know takes place. One begins to make sense of why things happened the way that they did and the self-loathing slowly grinds to a halt. The breadth of perspective gleaned by staring your rock bottom in the eye during the throes of addiction and then recovering is an absolute super-power of a gift that so few of us get to experience. It takes the pain of having a hole blasted through your very soul for the most intense light imaginable to one-day shine through, unabated and undeterred. And this is something that is not at all readily apparent until the dust has settled.

It took me several years to forgive myself for not having the strength to afford my father the gift of witnessing my personal transformation. Instead, I had to settle for promising him that I’d “bounce back”, as I gripped his hand for one of the final times. Twenty days later that process began, when I was convicted of my second OUI in the very same court in which he had been such a prominent figure for so many years. The irony is that at the time, I had never felt so unlike him. But it was only years later, when I could view life through the lens of one privy to the pain of losing those whom you have taken for granted for so long that I understood. My father became the man that he was because he had independently overcome so much adversity in his life. And for the first time in my life, I had to stand on my own two feet. That was the very first moment that I had actually began to resemble him. For the first time in my life, I had to face the consequences for my actions.

All these years later, when he reflect back on my journey through recovery, I have been able to reconcile the differences between how things actually happened and how I would have liked for them to have happened. Losing my father when I did fortified my recovery with the highest power imaginable. It takes an extraordinary human-being to empower someone after they leave this world, and that is what I have decided that my father did nine years ago. I know full well that one of the most pressing issues on his mind as he breathed his last breath was whether or not I would be okay. And the least I could do for him was to give him that. He may have passed nine years ago, but to me he is immortal because I'm reminded of him with each additional day of sobriety, and each time I hold one of my children as a testament to what this experience has made possible for me. See, the thing about addiction is that as long as your heart still beats, you still have a pulse and air in your lungs; you are empowered with the pen to write one hell of a script for the rest of your life. YOU can rewrite the narrative. Compelling stories are replete with adversity and nobody but you can write this ending.

Happy nine years to me-

New England Transrail, Olin Site Threaten Local Quality of Life

             The 53 acres of property located at 51 Eames was largely tranquil forest though the 1940s, prior to falling prey to development in the early 1950s with the construction of a manufacturing facility on the site. The opening of this manufacturing plant heralded an environmentally hazardous succession of chemical manufacturing operations between 1953 and 1986, the last of which was the Olin Chemical manufacturing company starting in 1980. It was Olin that produced and disposed of a number of liquid wastes in unlined pits known as “lagoons” over the site’s final six years of operation between the years of 1980 and 1986, thus leading to the logically named “Olin Superfund Site.”  Unfortunately, the 1986 closing of the manufacturing site did little to alleviate the pollution. Following the lagoons seeping into the nearby groundwater, it was determined necessary to close five municipal water supply wells that served 7000 people within the town of Wilmington. Following this crisis, 51 Eames St became a “superfund site” on April 16, 2006. Superfund is a term that implicates the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), which necessitates an extensive clean up to be conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as an exhaustive review by the Surface Transportation Board (STB) in order to determine the prudent course of action moving forward with regard to the business interests of the site. This is in addition to the numerous environmental investigations and response activities that had been conducted prior to this development, which resulted in the excavation and off-site deportation of a relatively large quantity of contaminated soil. The completion of the aforementioned CERCLA mandated environmental review to be conducted by the STB in conjunction with the clean up by the EPA will represent the trigger that will effectively authorize New England Transrail (NET) to once and for all begin receiving and processing raw commodities such as salt, sand, gravel, soil, lumber, plastics, steel, paper, woodchips, clay, and brick, as well as some other types of hazardous materials for transfer from this site. It should come as no surprise that NET is petitioning the STB to recant its 2012 decision to defer this review, but what is truly complicating matters is that the EPA endorsed this idea in November of 2015.

             The EPA cited reasons such as the intention of NET to exclusively process raw commodities, as opposed to solid waste, the economic benefit of returning contaminated land to use, and the benefit of free waste removal as reasons why they are in favor of the new proposal; however regardless of the veracity of these rationales, the EPA assumed this stance before it even completed its investigation of the site, or established a definitive clean up plan, as mandated by regulation. Since the EPA has yet to even render a record of decision, it is only logical for the STB to uphold its decision to defer its environmental review, which would at the very least buy the town more time. However on June 24, 2016, NET filed a petition for exemption with the STB, which could render all of this a moot. Regardless, it is for all of the reasons outlined that the town of Wilmington is adamant that the eventual sale of the Olin property to NET never should have been permitted in the first place. In addition to the regulatory stipulations and environmental concerns cited, there are also a plethora of practical concerns on the part of the town of Wilmington that will adversely impact that quality of lives for local residents.

             Those familiar with the town of Wilmington know that the portion of the community in the vicinity of Eames Street is a suburban, residential district, with relatively narrow, contorting thoroughfares, thus not only will traffic-concerns and noise pollution be immense, but the large volume of trucks navigating these winding roads will pose quite the danger indeed. The latest proposal from NET entails 20-25 rail cars daily six days per week, each car containing 3.5 truckloads of material. Ninety trucks per day will be leaving twice daily to haul away materials, totaling 180 daily truck trips beginning about 5:30 am and continuing until 4pm. In addition to the inordinately large volume of truck traffic on this residential roadway on nearly a daily basis and the dangerous chemical contamination that has already punished the land, there are still more environmental hazards in play. The integrity of the slurry wall that was constructed by Olin in the year 2000 in order to isolate the most heavily contaminated land may be compromised by daily vibration from the heavy volume of railcar traffic, which is an issue that may very well be exacerbated by the sheer weight of these trains and trucks loosening compacted soil and sediment, thus expediting the spread of contaminated water. This is extremely disconcerting because Wilmington is already plagued by an above average cancer rate among children, thus any further contamination threatens to pose an even greater health risk for local families, which is why swift action is needed.

            Wilmington has quickly evolved into one of the most desirable places to live in Massachusetts given its convenient location and quality school system, and now its incumbent upon its residents to fight to maintain this high quality of life. In order to do so it is imperative for the town’s population to be educated on this matter and thus empowered to take collective action because as local representative Jim Miceli stated, “this transrail is going to ruin this town, mark my words”. Miceli advises that concerned residents should demand answers from Remedial Project Manager (RPM) Jim DiLorenzo, (dilorenzo.jim@epa.gov, (617) 918-1247) at the EPA to the burning question of why he has been permitting the sale of the Olin superfund site to the New England transrail company to proceed despite a myriad of unaddressed issues. Not the least of which is a toxic elixir of environmental, logistical and health concerns being forced down the throats of Wilmington residents; otherwise quality of life as we know it maybe over. I urge my fellow residents to join me in erring our concerns-

As Trade Deadline Looms; Best Deal for Sox Now Mere Fantasy

Buchholz' 2015 Season Pre Injury

At the close of Major League Baseball business on June 2, 2015, Clay Buchholz’ line sat at a very respectable 3.82 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, to go along with a relatively gaudy 70/18 K/BB  ratio over 68 1/3 innings of work. Yes. He was ostensibly, at long last, evolving into the front-of-the-rotation panacea that would vault the Sox back into relevance in what is an immensely pedestrian 2015 AL East division. This was the dominant stretch of baseball that most, myself included, had expected at some point this year. His 8 shut out innings of sheer dominance against an upstart Minnesota Twins line up that June evening at Fenway the culmination of an immense five start stretch. A five start stretch that saw him pitch to the tune of a 1.95 ERA and 30/8 K/BB ratio over 37 innings. Clay had arrived at age 30. Better late, than never, right? Unless what we were witnessing was Clay’s unorthodox and highly unpredictable rendition of never.

Red Sox Faux Ace Delivers a Pitch at Some point Between Injuries

On June 3, the very next day after he had stymied the Twins line up, I dealt Clay Buchholz from my fantasy team. Why in the world would I do that!? If one were ever going to trade him, what better time to do so?  Allow me to explain.

Buy or Sell; Hold ‘Em or Fold ‘Em

The key to success with regard to player personnel decisions, put into rudimentary terms,  is to know when to hold ‘em, and know when to fold him. Players are akin to stock. The ideal trade candidate’s current value is high. Simple enough. However the challenge is to be perceptive enough to know which players, stocks, will not remain as such.

And to get rid of them ASAP. Do not wait until what is perceived as the inevitable ratchets the market downward.  What must be factored into the decision first is general principles that can be applied to athletic performance. The two largest determinants to the future  level of success of an athlete are, or course, age and attrition (health). Duh. A tertiary factor is personality, or “mental make up”, but this can not be directly quantified.

Thus the first two are often easier to determine. A good general rule of thumb is that athletic performance peaks between the ages of 27-29, at least in baseball, where the physical punishment isn’t quite as extreme as it is in more contact oriented sports. A player will not generally improve 9.9 times out of 10 upon entering his 30s. The skill level of players in their 30’s declines, and they are more prone to injury owed to the aging process.  For the purpose of this piece, we will focus on baseball, and since Clay Buchholz pitches, we shall concentrate on pitchers. Namely starting pitchers. Now that that is all sorted out, what do we know about the aging process relative to starting pitchers?

Peripheral Statistics Welcome You to the 21st Century

Research has revealed that the most fundamental skill that a starting pitcher possesses, velocity, begins to decline after about 25 years of age, and thus the rate of strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) also declines. The rest of a starting pitcher’s peripheral statistics begin to enter into decline, albeit at a more deliberate pace than velocity, at the age of 27, and accelerating during the age 28 season and thereafter. The folks at have displayed this in a graphical presentation, pictured below. 

Graphical Illustration of Why Expecting Improvement at Age 31 is Folly

Pictured above is an illustration of starting pitcher’s peripheral stats throughout the lifespan of his athletic career. The term “peripheral statistics” refers to those statistics that are more esoteric than those commonly employed to measure sheer performance. But the reason why peripheral statistics are of greater value to baseball analytical types is because they are a superior means by which to measure performance because they offer predictive value. For instance, the earned run average (ERA) merely measures the average amount of runs that a pitcher has already surrendered over a 9 inning period. But the reason this stat is futile with regard to projecting into the future is because it does not account for luck. It fails to consider external factors that were out of the pitcher’s control, such as what happens after the ball is batted into play, etc. To account for this utter chaos we have what is called the fielding independent pitcher statistic, or the FIP. Though unpredictable in it’s short term stochastic fluctuations, these by-chance occurrences (luck) will eventually even out via the process of regression, and FIP accounts for this. Thus this is a better predictor of future performance, while ERA simply measures past results. As you can see above, FIP is the stat the ascends most markedly after 27 years of age, and especially after a starting pitcher’s age 28 season. What this tells us is essentially that the average pitcher will give up more runs, more frequently as they approach their 30’s. We can also see that a few other peripheral stats rise, namely BABIP (batting average on balls batted into play), BB/9 (base on balls  or walks per 9 innings) and HR/9. What this does is reaffirm the idea that as the pitcher ages, they will allow more runs because they are losing control and walking more batters, and missing location within the strike zone (meat balls), allowing a larger percentage of balls batted into play (BABIP) to land for hits, which subsequently lends itself to higher batting average on balls batter into play. (think more line drives) More balls are also leaving the parks for home runs due to the percentage of balls being hit harder, meaning more home runs per 9 innings (HR/9).  Not only are pitchers “missing their spots”, and leaving pitches in hittable locations, but hitters are able to get around on more pitchers because of the decrease in velocity referred to earlier.  Obviously, along with the velocity and K/9, the swinging strike rate is the final of the 3 peripheral stats that descends. The other 4 increase. But the point that is being driven home even faster than runs off of an aging starter, is that all 7 of a starting pitcher’s core peripheral statistics worsen from his mid to late 20’s, onward. This is indicative of a deterioration of the skill set, and thus a decrease in performance moving forward, and into his 30’s.  We now know that the average starting pitcher’s skill set begins to erode between his age 25 and 27 seasons. What does this leave us to infer regarding the chances that Clay Buchholz is ready to develop into the long coveted ace that he we had always hoped he would be, just a few weeks shy of his 31st birthday?

Ponder that for a bit while we examine the body of work thus far throughout his major league career.

Buchholz’ Major League Body of Work

Two of the most desirable traits possessed by a bonafide top-of-the-rotation arm in the major leagues are attrition, and consistency. In a nut shell, it can be assumed with a relatively high measure of confidence that the ace of a staff will provide his team with above average aggregate statistics at the end of any given season.  Likewise, the manager can hand the ball over to him in a game of epic proportions, and be entirely comfortable in his assumption that fans all over the region will not be lining up at (insert local bridge) by the fourth inning. But first and foremost, he needs to be able healthy enough to even take the ball.  So in effect, what this entails is that not only do we want the pitcher to allow a relative dearth of runs over many innings, but optimally the runs will be distributed relatively evenly throughout the individual seasons comprising his career. This is because if the pitcher’s career ERA is good, but the variance amongst seasons is high, then is team may be eliminated from contention during his lean years.  However, as previously alluded to, regardless of how well a pitcher can perform, he does the team no good if he is on the disabled list. Lets examine how consistent and healthy Buchholz has been. Or has not.

When viewing Clay Buchholz' stats, keep in mind for the sake of some perspective that the league average ERA is slightly under 4, and generally the goal for durable “work horse” starters is to pitch about 200 innings over 30 starts per season. As you can see in the chart above, Buchholz’ only even comes close to the goal for innings pitched in a season twice, in 2010 and 2012, his age 25 and 27 seasons, respectively. Sound familiar? 

He has only pitched better than the league average ERA in 2010, 2011, 2013 and 2015. His age 25, 26, 28 and so far in this season, his age 30 season. Prior to his latest injury. Clay has achieved the ERA criteria , while even approaching the games started/innings pitched goal for a high caliber major league arm just once, in lo and behold……drumb roll, please….his age 25 season.

So, lets get this straight, you know….for the record. Buchholz has posted under the league ERA in four seasons, giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will not falter this year…should he ever come back. Is half of a career considered consistent?

He has not once…as in ever, reached the innings/games started goal for a stud ace, but lets pretend that playing a child’s game involves horse shoes and hand grenades for a moment. Clay has come close to those goals twice out of 8 major league seasons. I’m going to go ahead and assume he won’t do it this year given he has just embarked upon his seventh journey to the disabled list over the course of an illustrious, hang nail prone, MASH laden career.

Sue me.

His career ERA?

It sits at just about where we would like it, at a very respectable 3.85. But remember that pesky FIP? It implies that whenever he has been healthy over the course of his 8 year career, he has been the beneficiary of a bit help from the BABBIP gods. When they are done claiming what is rightfully their’s, that ERA should nudge up to about 3.90. 

So what we know about the soon-to-be 31 year old Clay Buchholz is that he is a starting pitcher who has turned in 1 season resembling anything close to that of an ace caliber performance. The very season that he should have according to Fangraphs.com. He had missed 257 games spanning 6 trips to the disabled list, with the 7th in progress as I write. What we also know is that his career is following precisely the same progression as research indicating that he was never consistent enough, nor durable enough to qualify as an ace in his prime, never mind today. Yet the Red Sox have in effect wagered on him taking that next step forward well beyond the point at which father time had began pushing him backwards. Perhaps they were hoping he would remain finally remain healthy. 

Attrition of Aging Players

Below is a graphical illustration of the number of games started per age group from the very informative blog https://workingthecount.wordpress.comIt is crucial that each age group have it’s own discrete calculation so that the fact that there are simply more younger pitchers playing than there are elder pitchers may be accounted for.

How Many Games Pitchers Start Throughout Career

What should stand out on this graph is that much like the efficacy of starting pitchers, the numbers of games started per season also begins it’s descension after the ripe old age of 25, and also begins to decline much more rapidly by about 28 years of age. Buchholz' current position relative to this curve is denoted by the vertical arrow. The horizontal arrow being the trend line thereafter. Pitchers turning 31 years of age, as Buchholz is, have already seen their number of games started per season drop by about 512 games, or 23% from the peak at the age of 25. 

Age Group	# of Players	Player Attrition	Attrition Rate
26-30	5651	-751	-13%
31-35	2253	-512	-23%
36-40	543	-227	-42%

Thus it is safe to assume he will not remain heather as time wears on.

Now that we have acclimated ourselves with the lifespan of a major league starter, we are now better suited to assess what it means for the soon-to-be 31 year old Clay Buchholz, and the prospects of him emerging from this latest DL stint as the power arm that the Sox need to dig themselves out of the AL East cellar.

The Forecast from Punxsutawney Clay

Each and every year, as we begin to enter the home stretch of winter, the days begin to grow longer, and the solar irradiance begins to melt the snow and ice from behind the clouds. Yes, it is every year around that time that the beleaguered, winter weary folks of the north begin to yearn for summer fare, as they turn their lonely eyes to a groundhog by the name of Punxsutawney Phil to see whether or not they are in for 6 more grueling weeks of winter. 

Punxsutawney Clay Sees Six More Weeks of DL. Six more seasons of Mediocrity

If the renowned critter remains unfettered, then they are thereby released from winter’s icy clutches. But should he encounter his shadow and flee into his hole, then they are resigned to 6 more grueling weeks of winter. Well, we here in Boston have our own annual tradition, as the days begin to shorten in length, and the chorus of “back to school” advertisements begin to send children fleeing for one last dip into the pool. 

It is every summer at just about this time that Red Sox fans all over New England sit in wait, to see whether they finally, at long last see all of those episodes of brilliance scattered throughout Clay Buchholz’ career finally coalesce into a stud starting pitcher on the Fenway mound. But in all but one season out of his 8 year major league career, he has seen his shadow, and fled into the whole that folks within the baseball industry refer to as the the disabled list. Unsurprisingly given what we now know, the one season on in which he did not see his shadow was 2010. His age 25 season. A season in which he still fell short of the 200 innings/30 start benchmark some are still holding out hope for as he reaches age 31. Yet here in 2015, a full half of a decade beyond a career pinnacle that still fell shy of those expectations, the Red Sox have decided to forgo the opportunity to acknowledge the fact that his value would never be higher than it was this past June. A month in which he holds a minuscule career ERA of 2.45. Couple this with the fact that 5 of his 7 career DL trips have encompassed parts of the month of July. Buchholz’ career has most definitely featured disturbing trend, yet there was no sense of urgency to move him in an effort to preempt the inevitable. Considering his age, a history riddled with injury and inconsistency, one must wonder why the Red Sox did not jump at the chance to deal him in June, before history repeated. The writing was on the wall. And the fact that July, the month leading up to the trade deadline, is one of his worst career months, featuring an ERA north of 4, should have eradicated any vestige of a doubt regarding what the prudent course of action was.

Clay Buchholz has once again seen his shadow, and the outlook is about 6 more years of mediocrity. Yet again, when the lights got really bright against a crucial tilt against the first place Yankees on July 10th, Clay went down.

Clay Walking Off of Fenway Mound in the 4th inning with Red Sox Trainer on July 10  (photo courtesy of Boston Globe)

Given the preponderance of evidence, it is absolutely perplexing why the Sox, along with some prominent media types, could not see this coming. 

Learn from It

In the days leading up to Buchholz seeing his shadow, I mean, making that inevitable trip to the disabled list, I was forced to endure caller after caller on local sports radio stations display a disturbing contentment with the football being yanked out from underneath them one last time. 

Fear not. This one wasn't deflated. I measured.

Yes. As the biggest fraud ace this side of Jeff Samardzija prepped the first aid kit for an injury that will undoubtedly prompt him to seek “piece of mind” for the next two months plus, caller after caller chimed in that “he is what we are looking for, this is our guy, blah, blah blah”. As nauseatingly out of touch as this was, nothing beats the line of crap that two prominent media personalities spewed forth. Apparently they were absent the past 8 seasons and change.

WEEI.COMs Rob bradford was emphatic. Imploring that we can’t “trade what we are looking for”. He is the ace we need. 

Right. How could we have seen this coming?? Oh, wait. Right. 

The same thing has happened each season, save for one, throughout the duration of his career. 

Add this one to the list. It’s groundhog day.

Mike Reese chimed in with Bradford lamenting that “well, knowing that he got hurt obviously changes things”. The only thing worse then saying something stupid is not admitting that it was stupid. It merely exacerbates the situation.

Own it. Its ok. We’re all human.

Sure, Bradford and Reese, the guy has never pitched well enough, nor remained healthy enough over a long enough period of time to be a bonafide ace, and yet you employ his 7th  trip to the DL (5 of them encompassing at least part of July) as an excuse for having had no clue what this fraud was all about? 

Oh yea. Not to mention this team stinks, any way. Why not salvage the future for the closest thing resembling talent on this island of misfit contracts? Because Bradford and Reese said so.

Oh boy.

Stick to defltegate, Reese.

In an effort to spare my readers any further redundancy in a piece that is already nearing the length of Clay’s DL rap sheet, I will refer you back to the research already referenced. The numbers that any media personality worth a damn, or any team management worth the cheesy bricks that they sold would have already crunched.

What extensive analysis provides us with is a glimpse beyond the vale of statistical chaos that can sometimes cloud our perception of a given player’s performance over a given period of time. And thus what to expect from said player in the future. 
The wise move for the longterm well fare of this franchise was to take the preemptive measure of moving Clay. Acquiring his services would have undoubtedly been perceived by many competitive clubs around the league to have been the move of the 2015 trade dead line. Strike now before the bidding war for higher profile names commences as the deadline looms. And make “the deal that could win them a world series”.
Now that Clay is predictably gone. Again. The ostensible ace of the staff, growing pains not withstanding,  is 22 year old Eduardo Rodriguez.

Red Sox' Young Stud Starter Eduardo Rodriquez in Action

 The interesting thing to note is that the Red Sox acquired the real ace of this staff by dealing a freaking set up man. Last season Andrew Miller netted them what is seemingly a top-of-the-rotation arm from the Baltimore Orioles. Make no mistake about it. What the Sox’ brass, and a few select media types were apparently too incompetent to discern was that Punxsutawney Clay should now be the problem of some poor, hapless team in contention, while the Sox showcase EROD’S new side kick atop the rotation. And/or perhaps a positional player who knows what the count is, and how many outs there are in the inning.  Radical, I know. But this is, after all, a hot commodity in bean own these days.

But now that is all but a mere fantasy.

As the curtain begins to close on yet another fun filled failure on Yawkey Way, take solace in the fact that Punxsutawney Clay should be back in about six more weeks in order to embark upon his remaining 6 years of mediocrity. 

Only this time he will be donning a Bill Murray jersey because the Red Sox have just learned the hard way that it is in fact groundhog day.